It seems to me there may be lopsided social rewards in favor of doomsaying.
These are examples of the types of reactions I’ve seen when people make pessimistic vs optimistic predictions, after the actual outcome is observed:
| Pessimism | Optimism | |
|---|---|---|
| Good outcome happens | ✅ “I’m just glad you were wrong!” | (nobody cares) |
| Bad outcome happens | ✅ “You called it!” | 😑 “You got our hopes up.” |
This makes pessimism an attractive option socially, even when the actual case for it may be weak.
notes
- I feel like I hear doom-and-gloom predictions often. Sometimes the arguments in favor of pessimism are very bad. I’m reminded frequently of Steven Pinker’s The Better Angels of our Nature which gives some strong arguments for optimism about a great many things in the world today
- Relevant economics joke from Paul Samuelson about Wall Street predicting nine out of the last five recessions